The collapse of Iran’s regional influence in 2025 has opened up a new spectrum of potential conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon that will define 2026, wrote Seth J. Frantzman
Frantzman , an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, added “The new year in the Middle East has seen several slow-burning conflicts erupt. These include conflicts in Yemen and Syria, as well as internal protests in Iran. The major question that hangs over the region is whether a coalition of states, many of them aligned with the United States, can stem these ongoing conflicts” .
Most of the low-level conflicts in the region have deep roots and have led to decades of division. For instance, Yemen has been divided between the Iranian-backed Houthis and rival groups backed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
This has led to a three-sided conflict that erupted in late December 2025 as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) clashed with the Saudi Arabia-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Now it appears that the PLC, which represents the internationally recognized government of Yemen, has the upper hand, and the UAE is backing off its support for the STC.
None of Yemen’s warring factions has the capabilities to conquer and rule the whole country. However, the STC’s setbacks could mean that the PLC will consolidate power across a swath of Yemen.
On the other hand, if the STC and PLC continue to clash, it will weaken two powers that might otherwise check the Houthis’ stranglehold over much of northern Yemen’s mountainous region.
The Houthis proved how dangerous they could be to the region over the past decade, attacking ships transiting the Red Sea and also launching attacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel. The relative weakening of Iran after clashes with Israel in 2025 may mean that Iran has more obstacles to backing its Yemen partners.
The challenge for Tehran this time is that the regime is weaker than in the past, with economic problems at home and less ability to project its power abroad. As such, many dissident groups may feel less deterred.
A third conflict that has been simmering is in Syria. Clashes between the Syrian transitional government and Kurdish forces in two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo threaten to spiral out of control.
This could drag in the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria, a Kurdish militia that fought ISIS. Clashes in Aleppo between the Syrian army and the SDF led to 22 deaths this week. Meanwhile, the United States has been backing talks between Israel and Syria to create a mechanism that will lead to an understanding between the countries.
Israel also faces a potential renewed conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. In Gaza, Israel and Hamas agreed to a tenuous ceasefire in October. The White House wants to see progress toward the establishment of a new governance framework in Gaza that will disarm Hamas and lead to reconstruction. Much work remains because Hamas refuses to disarm and continues to hold the body of one deceased Israeli hostage. In addition, the new governance framework will require the deployment of an international stabilization force. Regional governments are not stepping up to fill the ranks of this force, and until that happens, Gaza will remain in limbo.
Southern Lebanon is also in limbo. Ever since the November 2024 ceasefire ended fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, there have been questions about whether Hezbollah will also disarm. While Beirut wants to disarm Hezbollah, there is no clear pathway to actually disarming the group. This has led Israel to continue to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, claiming that the terrorist group is violating the parameters of the ceasefire. If there is no clear movement towards disarming Hezbollah, these strikes may escalate.
The low-level conflicts across the Middle East are all linked by common themes. In Yemen, two Gulf countries appear to be increasingly at odds over their decade-long policies in the country. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are US allies..
Frantzman concluded that the year 2026 “will be one in which countries negotiate a new map of the Middle East”.