Israel’s retaliatory strikes could block or slowdown humanitarian aid flows through Hodeidah port, affecting distribution of fuel and food, warned SARI Global center.
According to SARI Global, the Houthi strikes matter because the Ben Gurion airport has faced attempted drone and missile raids since late 2023. Yet, it said, every previous projectile was intercepted before crossing the fence.
The Center added that the pattern of similar missile attacks shows a steady progression from harassment of Eilat in 2023 to sustained maritime pressure through 2024, followed by longer-range and higher-speed strikes against critical Israeli infrastructure in 2025.
It then predicted that Israeli and potentially US-led retaliatory strikes are likely to reprise the same operational logic seen in 2024, targeting not only missile infrastructure but also dual-use assets such as airports, ports, and power stations suspected of facilitating Houthi logistics or receiving Iranian material support.
Based on both historical precedent and current Houthi command and logistics structures, the Center listed areas considered high-risk for near-term airstrikes, including the Sanaa Capital District, which hosts political and military headquarters, and the airport previously targeted in December 2024.
Also, it said retaliatory strikes could hit the Harf Sufyan area in the Amran Governorate, known to host long-range missile launch infrastructure, in addition to the Hodeidah and Salif/Ras Kanatib ports, both critical entry points for fuel and goods and were struck in 2024 under claims of missile logistics use.
“If any of these high-value locations are hit in the coming escalation, humanitarian operations could be immediately and severely impacted,” the Center warned.
It said likely consequences include the suspension of international and humanitarian flights into and out of Sanaa International Airport, the disrupting staff rotations, supply inflow, and medical evacuations, and the blockage or slowdown of humanitarian aid flows through Hodeidah Port, affecting distribution of fuel, food, WASH supplies, and medicines for millions in northern governorates.
In addition, attacks would lead to civilian casualties and mass displacement due to urban strikes in Sanaa and Hodeidah, straining shelter capacities and compounding protection risks and to disruption of electricity and communications infrastructure, especially if power stations or fuel depots are re-targeted.
The Center said humanitarian agencies must prepare for both direct operational disruption and indirect effects through broader conflict spillover by planning alternative logistics routes through Aden or Mukalla and pre-positioning essential staff and supplies in more stable locations to ensure program continuity.
Humanitarian agencies should also ensure staff safety and evacuation readiness, update relocation and evacuation plans for personnel in Sanaa and Hodeidah and ensure all teams have access to backup communications, satellite phones, and alternate power source.
According to SARI Global’s analysis, the potential scale of Israeli retaliatory operations carries regional implications.
As in previous cycles, it said deep strikes in Yemen may provoke further Houthi retaliation via missiles and drones targeting Red Sea shipping lanes, Israel, or US naval assets.
It noted that while access and safety planning remain critical, so too does coordinated risk communication with donors, local authorities, and community actors to maintain humanitarian space and mitigate reputational or operational backlash amidst intensifying hostilities.