President Trump’s air campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen has led rival Yemeni factions in the country to mull seizing a potential opportunity to launch a ground offensive against their adversary. Whether an offensive will materialize in the coming weeks and months or prove capable of wresting any significant territory from the group remains to be seen, according to an analysis published by Forbes magazine.
Paul Iddon, a freelance journalist with Forbes, focused on Middle East affairs added that the anti-Houthi groups hope to uproot the Houthis from strongholds along the Red Sea coast, including the port of Hodeidah, and have already received advice from private American security contractors, according to an April 14 Wall Street Journal report.
Alex Almeida, a security analyst at the energy consultancy Horizon Engage who has conducted fieldwork in Yemen, believes there is “little hard evidence” in the short term that any offensive has moved beyond mere talk or initial planning.
“The combat effectiveness of the anti-Houthi forces varies significantly - some groups like the Salafi Giants brigades are combat-proven fighters that can deploy and fight anywhere in Yemen,” Almeida said. “But large sections of the frontline are held by local tribal or semi-tribal Yemeni army forces that have dubious offensive value.”
The analyst believes the key question is whether American airstrikes and any other support to anti-Houthi forces could “offset the absence” of ground forces from the United Arab Emirates. Emirati forces previously played a key role in past offensives against the Houthis in 2015-2018.
However, the Emirates has since denied reports of its involvement, as has Saudi Arabia, which previously led an anti-Houthi coalition and carried out a large-scale air campaign against the group from 2015 to 2022.
Mohammed Al-Basha of the Basha Report, a Virginia-based Risk Advisory, believes the likelihood of ground operations resuming in Yemen is “moderate to high,” especially along the country’s western coast. However, he clarified that these operations would more likely be “a defensive response to Houthi mobilization” than “a UAE- or US-backed” initiative.
While the United States shares these group’s goals of combating the Houthis and degrading its capabilities, it may not provide extensive direct support for any ground offensive. Any support would most likely be limited to providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to anti-Houthi militias and perhaps some precision airstrikes in support of any offensives they manage to mount.
“The Trump administration remains cautious about deeper military entanglements, especially in protracted conflicts like Yemen,” Al-Basha said. “However, securing the Red Sea coastline aligns with core US national security interests, particularly in protecting commercial and naval freedom of navigation — a principle the Houthis have challenged repeatedly since their first attack on a US Navy vessel in 2016.”
Additionally, the US is presently engaged in nuclear talks with the primary state backer of the Houthis, Iran.
“A lot will depend on how US-Iran talks play out and how the Gaza war develops during the coming weeks and months,” Almeida of Horizon Engage said. “A U.S.-Iran deal or another ceasefire in Gaza would likely cause Trump to lose interest in Yemen and take any anti-Houthi offensive off the table.”
“On the other hand, if U.S.-Iran negotiations stall or break down, we could see the Trump administration ramp up US support for the ROYG forces as a way to pressure Iran and the Houthis.”
A fourth round of U.S.-Iran was scheduled for Saturday in Oman but was postponed “for logistical reasons,” the Sultanate’s foreign minister announced on X.
While Trump’s air campaign against the Houthis is the most intense American one yet, it may not inflict lasting blows against the group without a concurrent ground offensive that captures and holds territory.
Al-Basha noted that without ground operations, the Houthis would likely have “space to regroup, rearm, and sustain future attacks” against its leadership and weapons.
While there are limits to what airstrikes alone can achieve, the present US air campaign ordered by Trump just over a month ago has already demonstrated it can achieve things it predecessors throughout the past decade could not.
“Unlike the Saudi-led coalition, which faced significant constraints from the international community, today’s global consensus is shifting against the Houthis,” Al-Basha said.
“Moreover, U.S.-supported operations are more capable of minimizing civilian casualties and collateral damage, in contrast to the widely criticized Saudi-UAE air campaign.”